bootstrap analysis

the year in birds: 2009

This has turned into a  tradition. Here are links to 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008.

• New life birds: 37. Most were from my trip to Nicaragua in March. The last one was either Banded Wren or Long-tailed Manakin. The latter were amazing.
• Total life birds: 1011. Number 1000 was Ruddy Woodcreeper (Dendrocincla homochroa) at and ant swarm at the Selva Negra coffee farm in Nicaragua. Gotta like that.
• Total ABA-area birds: 578 (no new species this year).
• Total state birds: 310 (no new species this year).
• Total birds in my home county: 257 (no new species this year).
• Total city birds: 220 (I saw 156 this year). New for me this year were Semipalmated Plover, Dunlin, and Vesper Sparrow.
• Total birds at work: 190 (new this year, Common Goldeneye and White-winged Crossbill).
• Yard birds: 135 (no new species this year).

Next chance for life birds, I expect, will be in western Mexico in a couple months.

damn statistics and sloppy journalism

As a former journalism major and current writer, the decline of journalism these days is very distressing to me. I could go on about this, but will cut to an item from one of the few papers that I still turn to for decent writing and fact-checking, The New York Times. It really depressed me.

The article was about the supposed increasing dissatisfaction with each of three versions of the Amazon Kindle. The author provided three pie charts using the starred reviews of each device on the Amazon site. First and foremost, these charts falsely represent the "data." Here's one of the charts:

Clearly, the slice representing one-star ratings, at 7%, if far larger than 7% of the pie. Here are these same data charted in Excel, without adjustment:

Further, as is pointed out in the comments on the piece, the one-star user ratings for the Kindle on the Amazon web site include comments from people who do not own a Kindle or are simply opposed to this type of technology versus real books, and do not represent actual product satisfaction. Amazon has started flagging ratings from verified purchasers; this commenter notes that 50% of the recent one-star ratings of the Kindle DX are not from Kindle owners. Other people note this is not a random sample and doesn't really mean a whole lot.

The article also does not discuss -- although commenters do -- that there is typically a difference in satisfaction levels between early adopters of a new technology and later-generation users as expectations rise. There are other worthwhile comments about the methodology in the comments as well. It's worth it to go read them.

Yes, I own a Kindle and like it very much. My point here isn't to defend the product, or Amazon. I'd be (am) discouraged at reading an article in a major news source that so sloppily discussed any product in this manner. Shame on the Gray Lady.

crisis at lake atitlan

From the Neo-orn bird list:

Date: Thu, 3 Dec 2009

Folks,

I received a request from a fellow birder about visiting Lake Atitlan. He had seen this article [How Guatemala's most beautiful lake turned ugly, at Time magazine] and wanted to know if the problem was worse than what was stated here.

My answer:

Rick,

The problem is much worse than the article states. Untreated sewage to the tune of 40 tons a day is still going into the lake. The govt is corrupt and has done nothing so far and I doubt they will. The locals think God will solve the problem. It is impossible to get through to these people. The wastewater treatment plant in Panajachel was washed out in Hurricane Stan in 2005. It was funded to be rebuilt once - and the money disappeared. The stench is out of this world and the danger of the cyanobacteria is growing everyday. If I could leave, I would TODAY. Unfortunately, it will take me some time to relocate. I highly suggest you do NOT come here. They are still using pesticides, washing their clothes in the algae and the lake looks brown for miles and miles. A good website that has photos and factual information is www.lakeatitlanhealth.com. The American who did this website has since left - but it still offers the most factual details of the problems with the lake. I think this is the worst environmental disaster I have witnessed and I am an Environmental Studies graduate from the University of California at Santa Cruz. I'm sorry to send such bad news but Lake Atitlan is in a state of eutrophication and there is nothing but misinformation, ignorance and lack of infrastructure, not to mention significant govt corruption, There are hundreds of Lesser Scaup here now and many other migratory birds from the US. I expect ALL the waterbirds to die. I have watched them trying to preen the algae off like an oil slick.. I am heartbroken. It was so beautiful.

 
Carol C. Anderson
San Pedro La Laguna
Guatemala
www.monterey-bay.net/birds

Read more:

• NASA's Earth Observatory has a piece and satellite imagery.
• Global Nature declares Lake Atitlan Threatened Lake of 2009.
• One of several blogs documenting the tragic response of villagers.
• See also a piece in Guatemala Times.

wordless wednesday

the birding community e-bulletin

I read other stuff than wacky science humor. The Birding Community E-bulletin is a fantastic monthly e-mail newsletter with items that include a rarity focus, and four or so other news briefs from the birding world, generally conservation oriented. It's non-frivolous, concise but detailed, and one of the best sources of real bird news around. Read it.

annals of improbable research

I don't know too many scientists who don't think that the Annals of Improbable Research are funny. I don't surf over to the magazine or blog (actually the online version of their Guardian column) very often these days, but I do get their monthly newsletter, mini-AIR. There's always a laugh-out-loud tidbit in there.

These are the folks that give us the annual Ig Noble Prize, honoring real research that is, let's just say, offbeat. The most recent mini-AIR announced the upcoming Ig Noble Prize ceremony, providing a short list of attendees. The last line cracked me up.

In addition to the new winners, several past winners will attend the ceremony:

• Deborah Anderson (effectiveness of Coca-Cola as a spermicide)
• Don Featherstone (creation of the plastic pink flamingo)
• Francis Fesmire (digital rectal massage cures intractable hiccups)
• Dan Meyer (swordswallowing and its side effects)
• Kees Moeliker (homosexual necrophilia in the mallard duck)

All of them, especially Dr. Francis Fesmire, will be happy to shake your hand.

domain purchase scam

I got an email recently for an offer to purchase one of the handful of domain names I have parked. This seemed rather fishy, mostly because the author of the email was accepting domain name valuations from only two web sites, and both charged for the service. A bit of Googling, and I discovered that this scam is described here.

Here's the text of the email, so ignore it if you get it:

We are interested to buy your domain name "imadumbass.com" and offer to buy it from you for 70% of the appraised market value.

As of now we accept appraisals from either one of the following leading appraisal companies:

macez.com
sedo.com

If you already have an appraisal please forward it to us.

As soon as we have received your appraisal we will send you our payment (we use paypal for amounts less than $2,000 and escrow.com for amounts above $2,000) as well as further instructions on how to complete the transfer of the domain name.

We appreciate your business,

Yours truly,

Mark Allen

kindles are green

My rationalization for buying a Kindle turns out to have basis in fact: "A new study analyzing the Amazon Kindle electronic book reader’s impact on the environment suggests that, on average, the carbon emitted over the life of the device is offset after the first year of use."

Story at the New York Times.

the lunas

We left off with dozens of silkmoth caterpillars snug in their cocoons. For the most part, I expected these to overwinter. I'm at 42 degrees N latitude, and, for instance, the Luna eggs were laid on on 30 May, the first started hatching on 16 June (16 days), the first cocoon was spun on 13 July (27 days).

We had all the Luna cocoons in a big cat litter bucket. The screen top also covered a bucket of Cecropia larva. Three weeks after the first cocoon was spun, I looked in the bucket and was surprised to see an adult Luna. This was on 4 August (21 days after the first cocoon was spun, although I don't know if it was the same individual).

This first adult was a male, which we let go at my work, the original intention. The next day a pair eclosed.

Two fresh adult Lunas, chubby egg-filled female on top.

We originally put the female in a wire cage overnight, to see if the female would call in a wild male. During the night (the time varies among species) female silkmoths exude pheromones from a gland that protrudes from the tip of the abdomen. Males detect these pheromones with their feathery antennae and may come to mate from miles around. But, no luck that first evening.

The next night we put the pair in another bucket lined with paper towels. When I checked them at 2:30 AM (I had read Lunas call between 1 and 3 AM), the pair was mating. They remained coupled together all day the following day, which was very rainy. We'd hoped she'd lay a few eggs on the paper toweling and we'd be able to let them go that night, along with several others that had eclosed, but it didn't look as if the rain would let up.

We watched this male shove his way out of his cocoon. Freshly emerged, his wings looked like dried apple chips.

It stopped raining just before we went to bed, and when we checked on the moths before turning in for the night we found that the pair had uncoupled and the female was laying eggs -- rapid fire, as fast as a sewing machine! Having no desire to raise 200 more caterpillars, we grabbed the buckets with all the moths and rushed to go release them.

Fresh Luna eggs.

The females aren't very inclined to fly, so we let them clamber up the trunks of a couple walnut trees. We set the males down near them. A couple of them flew off, a few seem interested in hanging around the females.

I was expecting the eggs to hatch in about two weeks, same as the first time. But after only 8 days I came home from work to find a couple dozen minute Luna caterpillars wandering all over. Round two of foster parenting has begun!

me and my kindle

The fact that my cell phone does nothing but make and receive calls belies my love for high tech gadgetry. I can, and have, come up with elaborate rationalizations for purchasing redundant electronic doo-dads. For instance, I have both a netbook and a laptop, and five digital photo devices (including the fabulously fun but limited use Dinolite).

It took me quite awhile to spring for an electronic book reader. Although it would be extremely handy when I travel, since I hate to schlep along all the paperbacks and magazines I like to read in airports and on planes, I don't even have a vacation planned this year. I am a fairly voracious reader, and especially like to devour a good British mystery or police procedural before hitting the hay. However, I've cut way back on my fiction book buying. I usually pass my novels on to friends, but it still seemed wasteful to buy a dead-tree book for one-time reading. Wait! That's it!

I bought Amazon's Kindle 2 to prevent trees from being harmed for my recreational reading pleasure. (Update: this turns out to be true!)

Everybody and their brother is asking me what I think. So here is my Kindle 2 review. (I'll call it the K2. There is also a larger Kindle called the DX. When I talk about material applicable to both, I'll just write "Kindle.") You might first want to take a look at the description and videos on the Kindle 2's product page. They are thorough and tell you most of what you need to know. I'll concentrate here mostly on my impressions.

The K2 arrives in stylishly understated packaging, and comes loaded with the Kindle user manual. I referred to it a couple of times, but for the most part the limited controls and menus were very intuitive and easy to use. It also comes loaded with a dictionary. Point to any word on any screen, and the definition is provided at the bottom.

The K2 has to be charged for a few hours when you get it, but it can be used while charging and it rapidly downloads anything you ordered as soon as you turn it on. You can order books and such before the device even arrives at your doorstep. Content just queues up until the K2 is connected. 

Speaking of the battery, it is said that one charge lasts 4 days with the wireless on, or 2 weeks with it off. I'm not sure how that translates into hours, as apparently Kindles only use energy for the wireless or page turning -- at least 3000 pages is one estimate I've seen.

The K2 is roughly the size of a trade paperback, but the screen itself is about the size of a page from a mass market paperback. The K2 is as thin as a pencil, so it isn't clunky or awkward, but at 10 ounces it has just enough heft not to feel cheap or flimsy.

I find it easy to hold, ergonomic, stylish, and modernistically appealing. People tend think this device is very attractive or very ugly. Geez, if you think it's too plain, there are a ton of skins for them.

The buttons on the K2 perform the essential functions, which are pretty obvious, and are just the right size and in the right places. Even though the keyboard keys are very small, they are simple to use with your thumbs, even for someone like me who has never owned or used a texting device. Frankly, I don't want to be distracted by an array of things to push, touch, and fiddle with. For that, I have my universal remote control. I just want to read a book, and have a few tools to help me do it.

The display is not a backlit LCD-type display, but uses E Ink technology. I found it very easy to read, with less glare than most magazines. I've heard the complaint that there isn't enough contrast on the Kindle screen because it is dark gray text on a light gray screen. I'm not sure I would have noticed this right away, given the wide variation in text and background colors in print media these days. I think the Kindle screen simulates most books quite well -- if you think all books have bright white pages, grab a sheet of office paper and compare. I'd guess the K2 screen color is akin to the color of newsprint. If it still bugs you, you can experiment with some text adjustments.

Graphics and photos are in 16 shades of gray. My intended reading is not graphic or photo heavy, but the stuff I've seen is okay. You can use the zoom tool if you wish. I tried it with a table in one of my e-books. It was sufficient, but don't buy a lovely picture book for a Kindle.

Enlarging text is also an option; you can choose among six text sizes. I found that in non-default text sizes, there would occasionally be a line that was not right-justified, a tad jarring. Even with the smaller text sizes, you don't get as much text on a K2 screen as you would on a book page. At first it seemed weird to be "turning" the page so much, but I got used to it very quickly.

When you turn the page, the screen goes to a negative image for an instant -- more briefly, I judge, than the time it takes to physically turn the page of a book. We've adapted to the visual disruption of page turning. Who really "sees" that any more? After a couple of hours of reading, I no longer see the rearrangement of the electronic ink on the K2.

Reading in bed is awesome. You can hold the K2 and "turn" pages with one hand (there is a "next page" button on each side of the device; the "previous page" button is on the left only). It's much more comfortable and easy to read than holding a book open.

I've never been good at reading "just one chapter," and I'll admit it's even harder with the K2. You don't go to bed with just one book, you have your whole library, plus the Kindle store and even the Internet. If a chapter starts out boring, you switch to another book. If you finish one and it's really satisfying, you go on to the store and see what else the author wrote, instantly, and order and begin reading immediately, if you so desire.

Speaking of available content, there's plenty. Most books are $9.99, including hardcover bestsellers. Some are a little more, many are less (especially books out in paperback), and there are even free books. Not every book is available in a Kindle edition, but you can see what is and request what isn't on any Amazon book page. One great feature is that you can get a free sample. So far, I've found that book samples are the table of contents and typically the first chapter or a big hunk of it. Certainly sufficient to judge whether you'd like to buy the book. In fact, just as good if not better than the "Look Inside" feature of many Amazon print book pages.

You can get samples or order books online from a computer as usual, and they are delivered within a minute of turning on your Kindle. Or you can order directly from the Kindle. When you look at a book's page from the Kindle, beware that the "buy" button is highlighted when you are viewing the description. It is easy to accidentally order a book. However, the next screen immediately allows you to cancel a mistaken order.

Nonetheless, ordering books for the Kindle is way too easy. The act of placing items in a shopping cart and choosing a shipping method and then receiving a physical product isn't difficult, but...mindful. Just clicking one virtual button and having content appear like magic on your Kindle doesn't even feel like spending money. You've been forewarned.

Newspapers, magazines, and blogs are also available for Kindles, and subscriptions are automatically delivered when new content is published. Due to Kindle's graphic limitations, Kindle magazines (at least the ones I've looked at) don't contain photos or illustrations. Most of them have 14 day trial periods.

What else can you do besides read on a Kindle? 

• You can highlight passages, bookmark entire pages (Kindle remembers where you stopped reading, so you can use bookmarks to mark important pages instead), and annotate text in any publication. To take notes/annotate, just place the cursor where you want, start typing, then save the note. It creates a "footnote" of sorts. The note is associated with a superscript number; notes renumber themselves if you insert more before previously saved notes. All the bookmarks, notes, and highlights for each book or publication are available under the "My Notes and Marks" menu item for that content, as well as aggregated across content in the "My Clippings" folder. That folder also contains entire articles you may have clipped from periodicals. You can download this folder to your computer and edit the items, or view them on the web.
  
• Kindle can read to you. With a very mechanical voice that lacks emotion or the ability to properly pace itself. It's quite weird and I'm looking forward to utilizing this otherwise useless feature when I encounter a steamy love scene, just for laughs.
• You can also download music and audio books. I'm sure the speakers aren't super, but you can plug in headphones.
• Amazon will convert all sorts of other documents and file types to Kindle-friendly files. You set up an email addy for your Kindle, mail the files there, and Amazon converts them and sends them to your device for a small fee. Or you can avoid the fee by using a variation on the email addy, which will require you to download the converted files to your computer, and upload them to your Kindle via USB.
• Surf the Internet, for free, in the U.S. via Amazon's wireless network Whispernet, part of Sprint's network. Surfing isn't really the right word. Web pages you see are stripped down to the very basics. Some that are formatted for Kindle are only a little better. It's like going back to the way the web looked like in the early 1990s! If the web site you want has a mobile edition (e.g., m.facebook.com; m.yahoo.com), use it. Getting and sending email is a little tricky, but possible. See this tutorial.

What I don't like

• I'm anal. I'd like to sort my books and other jazz on the home page into folders. This is the most common usability complaint I've heard about the K2. Fortunately, there are workarounds. They exploit K2's notetaking ability to essentially "tag" content. There are a couple of tutorials that explain various approaches to this here and here. Searching for words or phrases within and throughout content is also simple and fast. Tagging is actually much more useful than folders; I just don't like the clutter of a list of content on the home page.
• When I'm browsing the Kindle store on the device, I can find a book and add it to my "save it for later" list. I can't do this when browsing the Kindle store online from a computer. In both venues, I can download a sample, but I'd prefer a list of titles I want to explore later, versus having a chapter in my device (cluttering up my home page!).
• In your content, there's a progress indicator and "locations" rather than page numbers.  Can't they tell me what page in the book that corresponds to? Of course, which page it corresponds to would depend on which print edition. So it's really irrelevant and I'm not even sure why that matters to me, especially when I'm reading fiction. It just seems weird.

That's a short list of minor complaints. I have no big beefs with the K2.  We're still getting to know each other, but my crush is turning into a real relationship.

Kindle accessories and customization

• First and foremost, Kindle needs a cover or sleeve. You don't want to toss it in your purse or bookbag unprotected. You will be flabbergasted at the number and variety of items available to dress your naked Kindle.
• When the Kindle is asleep, rather than turned off, it has a screen saver of sorts: an image of a famous author such as Poe or Twain. But this site offers a hack so that you can add your own images, as well as some samples.

Other Kindle reviews and resources

In addition to Amazon's own Kindle community, there are a lot of web sites and blogs devoted to all things Kindle. Here are just a few I found handy.

• 10 reasons to buy a Kindle 2 and 10 reasons not to -- Crunch Gear. I either disagree with some of the cons in this piece, or don't think they outweigh the pros.
• Kindle 2 review -- iReader Review. Lots of resources.
• Kindle and the future of reading -- New Yorker. A rambling essay; summary is here at Blog Kindle.
• Free Kindle books -- iReader Review. You can keep up with new offers they dig up through the free book category of the blog. ManyBooks also has tons of free books in different electronic formats, you'll just have to read the support to see how to get them onto your Kindle.
• Great list of Kindle tips, hacks, and shortcuts.
• Quick list of K2 shortcuts.

I'm happy with my K2. If there's something I haven't covered here, leave me a comment, and I'll try to address it.

If you've been thinking of getting one, try it. You have 30 days to return it if it's not for you.

100 hungry mouths to feed

A couple years ago I lamented that I didn't see sillkmoths much anymore.That was the year our friend Dr. Steve gave us a couple of Polyphemus (Anthera polyphemus) cocoons, so we got to see (and release) the adults that emerged. Dr. Steve has a big piece of property nearby, and his brother owns a tree nursery. They are able to find and raise several species of silkmoths every year. This spring, they gave us a bunch of eggs, mostly Cecropias, Hyalophora cecropia, but also a few Polyphemus and some Lunas (Actias luna).

The latter is, I believe, one of the most beautiful insects in North America. In all my time in the field these past decades, I'd never seen one, even though at work we have abundant black walnut, one of their favorite larval host plants. I intended to raise all three species and release them at work, with the hope of augmenting very sparse local populations.

We started out with about 50 Cecropias, 15 Polyphemus, and 20 Lunas. I know that doesn't add up to 100, but as usual we were also raising some Monarchs, and Black and Giant Swallowtails. This year we're also raising some Carolina Sphinx (Manduca sexta). You know these as tomato or tobacco hornworms. Purposefully raising what many people still consider the scourge of their garden may seem really weird, but they seem to have been wiped out in this area and I'd like to see a few adults again. So yes, I have been raising over 100 caterpillars this summer (so far!).

Luna eggs hatching

The silkmoth ranch starts out innocently enough. Once the eggs begin to hatch, the tiny caterpillars are put in small groups in tupperware containers with damp paper towels and some leaves of their host plants. I raised the Lunas on black walnut, the Cecropias on box elder and lilac, and the Polyphemus on maple and dogwood. Everything but the walnut was available in the yard.

 

Cecropia eggs and newly hatched larvae.

Twice a day the containers have to be cleaned out and restocked with fresh food. This takes longer than you might think. It's pretty common to lose a percentage of young larvae to bacterial or fungal infections, mishaps, or parasitoids (if you raise them outside, more on them later). I was careful to make sure no frass (poop) was clinging to the tiny cats when I cleaned the containers. When they were all spiky little things only a few millimeters long, this required a soft brush.

They outgrow sandwich-sized containers pretty quickly, and graduated to plastic shoeboxes within 10 days. At this point, they were still stacked up all over my office.

The next upgrade was to aquariums and empty cat litter buckets in the garage. Food was kept fresh by inserting branches into plastic carry-out cups of water -- the lids with the holes for straws are perfect for holding the plants while not allowing the larvae to fall or climb into the water.

We kept some on the bench by the open window, and the rest we moved outdoors in dappled sunlight during the day, and back inside at night. It's important they get some light and be exposed to natural cycles of daylight. This, apparently, influences whether multi-brooded species will emerge after pupation the current year, or overwinter. At this point, fortunately, I was home on vacation, because it took about 2 hours a day to tend to all these things!

 

Cecropia cat, fourth instar.

The Cecropias in particular were voracious, and there were a lot of them. I think we only lost around ten. By the time they were 3 inches long, I took a dozen to work and let them go, hoping they'd fend for themselves. By the time they started spinning cocoons, they were the size of large sausages. This species is supposed to be single-brooded here, so we'll keep these cocoons overwinter and release the adults next year.

 

Polyphemus cats. There was much more variation in their individual growth rates compared to the other species for some reason.

We lost quite a few Polyphemus to some pathogen when they were still very small. Once they reached second and third instar, they had been moved to mesh-covered containers outside. One day, we found two very tiny wasps had made their way through a small opening in the mesh. They were some sort of female braconid wasp. These are common parasitoids of many types of caterpillars. Within days a few more Poly cats died. The remaining ones seem fine and are starting to spin cocoons, but we shall see.

 

Anybody get this to genus? I am reasonably sure from the wing vein pattern that it's in Family Braconidae.

We ended up with 11 Lunas spinning cocoons. I'd heard conflicting reports of whether they were double-brooded or not in Michigan; most people told me these would overwinter. But they were wrong. More in a later post...

"this" is "funny"!

The "Blog" of "Unnecessary" Quotation Marks. Thanks, Kris.